Color me skeptical that American tourism into Canada has declined because people think they need a passport to cross the border.
Less than two years before passports would be required to enter the United States from either of its neighbors, the Niagara region's tourism industry is already taking a big economic hit.
Canadian businesses are bemoaning scrapped visits by Americans who think the new border security initiative already is in effect.
"Perception is reality to people," said Dave Hyde, president of the Ontario-based Niagara Falls Tours. "They already perceive it as a problem, so they don't bother."
Remember when the Canadian dollar tanked back in the early '90s? Canadian trips to the US declined dramatically and Buffalo's economy took a serious hit. A couple foundering local malls shut down for good, and the others saw losses from which they've only recently recovered. It just wasn't worth Canadians' time to shop here anymore.
Well, over the last year the opposite has happened. The Canadian dollar has risen to levels not seen in 1/4 century and perhaps Americans just aren't finding a trip to Canada to be the bargain it once was. For example, Canadian gasoline at the equivalent of US $3.64/gallon doesn't help.
Canadians are forever complaining that most Americans hardly know their country exists -- and they're correct. It would strike me as highly unlikely that those same Americans somehow know of President Bush's suggested plan to require passports to visit a country that they're only dimly aware of in the first place. Unfortunately, following the news is not one of our countrymen's fortes. However, checking prices is a national pastime and one we're quite good at.
Look, I'm as opposed to the passport idea as anyone, but trying to claim that it's hurting cross-border trade two years before its scheduled implementation probably won't convince very many.